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Retail Market Analysis

For a brief overview of key retail opportunities and resources in Canby see:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kT0ajzxlUyY

2012 Canby Market Analysis Highlights
(Download Full report - 3.64 MB)

Canby’s recent market analysis and business development action plan identifies key business opportunities to increase customers and sales to downtown Canby and the community overall. The analysis includes a survey of Canby shoppers and downtown employees, a competitive assessment of the local retail market, a supply analysis, an estimate of potential retail demand and a target business mix. Major findings are summarized below.

Opinion Research

  • During April and May of 2012, the Canby community completed two surveys regarding local shopping preferences and needs. Participants included 919 residents and 221 downtown employees.
  • Residents make decisions about where to shop primarily based on selection of goods/ services, convenience and price. Top shopping destinations include Canby, other Clackamas locations and Portland.
  • Downtown employees typically shop or dine out during their lunch breaks about 1 to 2 times per week. The vast majority spend between $5 and $10 on lunch when they go out to eat.
  • Residents and employees also identified types of businesses or merchandise that they would like to see in Canby. Top merchandise types include apparel, books, kitchen/bath accessories, arts/crafts supplies and sporting goods. Popular restaurants responses include family dining, a bakery, a steakhouse/grill and a brewpub.
  • Both resident and employee respondents emphasized the desire to see facade improvements, more street trees and longer business hours in downtown Canby. Other suggestions include expanded the farmer’s market and bringing a water feature to downtown.

Competitive Assessment

Canby’s top competitive assets and key selling points for new businesses include:

1. Population and household growth within the market area
2. Diversified and growing employment base
3. Substantial public and private investment
4. Recent and ongoing residential construction
5. Strong incomes
6. Year-round visitor market
7. Supportive, business-friendly local government

Canby’s efforts to grow its commercial base are challenged by the perception that as a small suburban market it cannot support national soft good chains. Its key market assets are not well known. Additionally, Highway 99 is seen as a rundown and unattractive corridor.

Supply Analysis

Canby’s major retail centers include Canby Market Center, downtown Canby, Canby Square, Hi-Way Marketplace Canby, Sequoia Commercial Center and Canby Place. Together these centers offer 720,000 square feet of retail space with a vacancy rate of 9 percent and an average lease rate of $16 per square foot.

Downtown Canby constitutes 30 percent of the City’s retail supply (or 220,000 square feet) and has a vacancy rate of 7 percent. The 103 businesses in downtown include a variety of types – services (personal services, professional office/service and heath office/service) make up 63 percent, restaurants constitute 10 percent, retail goods are 8 percent and grocery/pharmacy are 7 percent.

Demand Analysis

Canby’s primary target consumer markets for new and existing commercial space include residents, employees and visitors. The Retail Market Area – the area from which the majority of local Canby shoppers are likely to emanate – includes nearly 50,000 persons and 18,000 households. It is projected to add 2,000 persons and 840 households by 2016. Median income within the market area is $55,700, which is above the national median of $50,200. Providing another strong market for local retailers, there are nearly 6,000 employees working with a two-mile radius of the city center.

Canby’s visitor market is large and growing. The Clackamas County Fairgrounds is the most significant draw, with several large annual events bringing in 285,000 visitors in 2011.

Potential demand is derived from two sources. The first, “existing demand,” is demand for retail goods by current market area households that is currently being met outside of the market area. Existing demand is found by comparing retail supply (i.e., actual sales) to retail demand (i.e., the expected amount spent by market area residents based on consumer expenditure patterns). Sales leakage in the Canby Retail Market Area total $103.6 million, which has the potential to support 450,000 square feet of store space.

The second source of demand, “future demand,” is based on projected household growth and spending patterns in the market area through 2017. Within the Retail Market Area, there is potential demand for 62,300 square feet of new store space over the next five years. Combined with existing demand, there is potential for 511,300 square feet of new or rehabbed retail space in the Canby Market Area by 2017.

The share of space that Canby can capture will depend on numerous factors, including retail outreach efforts, the availability of quality retail-ready space, the performance of competitive shopping areas and the success of downtown’s revitalization efforts to develop a variety of retail, service and entertainment uses.

Target Business Mix

A successful business district in virtually any size community requires a balance and mix of uses that includes retail shopping, professional, financial and government services, entertainment, restaurants and personal services. The emphasis needs to be on businesses that serve the year round local market but also can accommodate visitor needs as earlier identified. While grocery-anchored shopping centers will meet the convenience needs of the marketplace, historic down-towns have the opportunity to be a destination for dining, entertainment and specialty shopping.

For More Information Contact:
Renate Mengelberg, Canby Economic Development Director
at 503-266-0701 or mengelbergr@canbyoregon.gov

 

 

City of Canby